|
Buenos Aires, 26.12.11
jballolio@gmail.com
Last week I was away in Tierra
del Fuego, looking at shearing and lamb marking at Estancia El
Salvador, but cut – off from phones & mails. As I commented, the
Fuegian winds usually help me clear my mind. It is a fresh area,
very tough in the winter, but very beautiful and quite close
to Paradise.
A U S T R A L I A - AWEX ( Week 24 ) Closing
15.12.11
This was the last auction week before the Xmas
recess. The Aussie was weaker at 0,9899, a weekly fall of – 3,5 %.
EMI closed at U$S 11,77 per KG clean basis, a weekly adjustment of –
1,83 %. For the 24 weeks sofar of the season, this represents – 22,3
%. However, going 12 months back we stand + 15,3 %, and + 53,8 %
above July 2010, start of the previous season.
46.395 bales were on offer, from which 13 % were
passed in.
From Bradford the WMR titled
: “Australian wool prices rule firm, despite strong dollar “.
In the final week before the year – end recess, the most recent
downward movement in prices was halted, at least in local currency
terms. Some last minute covering of more pressing, anticipated
requirements emerged as the week progressed. The upturn in demand at
auction coincided with reports of large trade sales to China and to
Europe, mainly for February shipment.
In October Australian wool exports increased by
29,5 % as compared with September. Shipments destination China
jumped up by 42 %, commanding 77 % of the total. Of the other major
buyers, only Italy ( despite its financial difficulties ) recorded
an increase in the volume of wool taken up.
The NAB National Australia Bank
reported as part of its December Rural Commodities Wrap : “
Declining global
demand is driving wool prices down, as market volatility set the
tone for agricultural commodities into early 2012. They are still
historically high, but facing considerable head winds. Wool prices
were late to move in comparison with other commodities in late 2010,
and the pull back in prices has also come relatively late. Demand
will be further impacted with the relatively high wool prices
compared with alternative fibres, downgrades in global growth and,
most notably, weakness in the big developed economies which are
major consumers of wool products. Demand for apparel in China and
improving textile demand in the U.S. may buffer somewhat these
impacts,
but it won´t be enough to offset the weakness in
other markets, particularly the Euro Zone where consumer confidence
remains very low.
Having said that, we believe there is a limit to
how low prices can go, and the EMI is not expected to dip below the
10,00 / kg this financial year.
At the same time, lamb prices
remain buoyant, which could see an increase in turn off if weather
conditions sour.”
A R G E N T I N A –Wool sales
The situation is the same described with my
previous report.
Uncertain market news from Australia, same as it
happens in neighbouring Uruguay, have diminished trading activity in
Argentina.
Everybody is aware that prices paid some weeks
ago tended to be over the PROLANA estimates, which are presently
considered quite acceptable as a general guideline.
Last season, after discussing the detailed
calculations with some of the leading exporters, SIPyM, the PROLANA
Market & Price Information Service, adjusted their guidelines to a
quite satisfactory level.
So now we have the reverse situation. Prices
actually paid are not lower, but in some cases above them,
reflecting the supply squeeze after a difficult winter and spring in
many parts of Patagonia.
In the last weeks some of the processing
exporters told me they simply could not follow other competitors,
who were paying higher prices which they could not obtain when
trying to sell abroad.
Now we have in front the usual 3 week recess,
giving everybody ample time to take stock and determin their future
trading stance when sales begin again mid of January.-
For you and your families, I trust you had a
Merry Christmas and send you my best wishes for a Happy New
Year!
= JOAQUIN B. (
JACK ) ALLOLIO = |
